Assessment of least-cost pathways for decarbonising Europe\u27s power supply : a model-based long-term scenario analysis accounting for the characteristics of renewable energies

This work analyses technological least-cost pathways for deep emission reductions in the European power sector. It seeks a better understanding of the role renewable energies play in the transformation process up to 2050. Therefore, a model is developed which optimises capacity expansion and hourly dispatch of both conventional and renewable power generation, transmission grids and storage facilities in all hours of the analysed years. The model is applied to four long-term scenarios

Supply curves of electricity-based gaseous fuels in the MENA region

The utilization of electricity-based fuels (e-fuels) is a potential strategy component for achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union (EU). As renewable electricity production sites in the EU itself might be scarce and relatively expensive, importing e-fuels from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) could be a complementary and cost-efficient option. Using the energy system model Enertile, supply curves for hydrogen and synthetic methane in the MENA region are determined for the years 2030 and 2050 to evaluate this import option techno-economically. The model optimizes investments in renewable electricity production, e-fuel production chains, and local electricity transport infrastructures. Analyses of renewable electricity generation potentials show that the MENA region in particular has large low-cost solar power potentials. Optimization results in Enertile show for a weighted average cost of capital of 7% that substantial hydrogen production starts above 100 €/MWhH2 in 2030 and above 70 €/MWhH2 in 2050. Substantial synthetic methane production in the model results starts above 170 €/MWhCH4 in 2030 and above 120 €/MWhCH4 in 2050. The most important cost component in both fuel production routes is electricity. Taking into account transport cost surcharges, in Europe synthetic methane from MENA is available above 180 €/MWhCH4 in 2030 and above 130 €/MWhCH4 in 2050. Hydrogen exports from MENA to Europe cost above 120 €/MWhH2 in 2030 and above 90 €/MWhH2 in 2050. If exported to Europe, both e-fuels are more expensive to produce and transport in liquefied form than in gaseous form. A comparison of European hydrogen supply curves with hydrogen imports from MENA for 2050 reveals that imports can only be economically efficient if the two following conditions are met: Firstly, similar interest rates prevail in the EU and MENA; secondly, hydrogen transport costs converge at the cheap end of the range in the current literature. Apart from this, a shortage of land for renewable electricity generation in Europe may lead to hydrogen imports from MENA. This analysis is intended to assist in guiding European industrial and energy policy, planning import infrastructure needs, and providing an analytical framework for project developers in the MENA region

The role of hydrogen in a greenhouse gas-neutral energy supply system in Germany

Hydrogen is widely considered to play a pivotal role in successfully transforming the German energy system, but the German government\u27s current “National Hydrogen Strategy” does not specify how hydrogen utilization, production, storage or distribution will be implemented. Addressing key uncertainties for the German energy system\u27s path to greenhouse gas-neutrality, this paper examines hydrogen in different scenarios. This analysis aims to support the concretization of the German hydrogen strategy. Applying a European energy supply model with strong interactions between the conversion sector and the hydrogen system, the analysis focuses on the requirements for geological hydrogen storages and their utilization over the course of a year, the positioning of electrolyzers within Germany, and the contributions of hydrogen transport networks to balancing supply and demand. Regarding seasonal hydrogen storages, the results show that hydrogen storage facilities in the range of 42 TWhH2 to 104 TWhH2 are beneficial to shift high electricity generation volumes from onshore wind in spring and fall to winter periods with lower renewable supply and increased electricity and heat demands. In 2050, the scenario results show electrolyzer capacities between 41 GWel and 75 GWel in Germany. Electrolyzer sites were found to follow the low-cost renewable energy potential and are concentrated on the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts with their high wind yields. With respect to a hydrogen transport infrastructure, there were two robust findings: One, a domestic German hydrogen transport network connecting electrolytic hydrogen production sites in northern Germany with hydrogen demand hubs in western and southern Germany is economically efficient. Two, connecting Germany to a European hydrogen transport network with interconnection capacities between 18 GWH2 and 58 GWH2 is cost-efficient to meet Germany\u27s substantial hydrogen demand

Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles increase insulin secretion through transport of insulinotropic protein cargo

Adipocyte-derived extracellular vesicles (AdEVs) are membranous nanoparticles that convey communication from adipose tissue to other organs. Here, to delineate their role as messengers with glucoregulatory nature, we paired fluorescence AdEV-tracing and SILAC-labeling with (phospho)proteomics, and revealed that AdEVs transfer functional insulinotropic protein cargo into pancreatic β-cells. Upon transfer, AdEV proteins were subjects for phosphorylation, augmented insulinotropic GPCR/cAMP/PKA signaling by increasing total protein abundances and phosphosite dynamics, and ultimately enhanced 1st-phase glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) in murine islets. Notably, insulinotropic effects were restricted to AdEVs isolated from obese and insulin resistant, but not lean mice, which was consistent with differential protein loads and AdEV luminal morphologies. Likewise, in vivo pre-treatment with AdEVs from obese but not lean mice amplified insulin secretion and glucose tolerance in mice. This data suggests that secreted AdEVs can inform pancreatic β-cells about insulin resistance in adipose tissue in order to amplify GSIS in times of increased insulin demand

Transformative policy mixes in socio-technical scenarios: the case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system (2010-2050)

Much research and policy advice for addressing climate change has focused on developing model-based scenarios to identify pathways towards achieving decarbonisation targets. The paper's first aim is to complement such model-based analysis with insights from socio-technical transition analysis to develop socio-technical storylines that show how low-carbon transitions can be implemented. Our second aim is to explore how policymakers could govern such transition processes through transformative policy mixes. We take the example of the transition of the German electricity system towards renewable energies, and elaborate two transition pathways which are assumed to achieve an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but differ in terms of lead actors, depth and scope of change: the first pathway captures the substitution of technological components (pathway A), while the second aims at broader system transformation (pathway B). We find that multi-dimensional socio-technical change (pathway B) requires greater emphasis on societal experimentation and a more proactive role for anticipatory deliberation processes from the outset. In contrast, shifting gear from a new entrant friendly past trajectory to an incumbent dominated pathway (pathway A) requires agency from incumbents and is associated with regime stabilizing instruments defending the old regime while simultaneously fulfilling decarbonisation as additional success criteria

Deutschland auf dem Weg zur Klimaneutralität 2045 - Szenarien und Pfade im Modellvergleich (Zusammenfassung)

Erstmals stellt die vorliegende Szenarienanalyse für Deutschland konkreteTransformationspfade zur Klimaneutralität 2045 auf der Basis eines umfassenden Modellvergleichs vor. Das Besondere an dieser Studie des Ariadne-Projektes ist, dass sechs Gesamtsystem- und Sek-tormodelle in einer Studie integriert wurden, die sich in ihren jeweiligen Stärken ergänzen: Für spezifische Fragestellungen wurde jeweils dasjenige Modell als Leitmodell hervorgehoben, welches die entsprechenden Aspekte am genauesten abbildet. Weitere Modelle wurden genutzt, um Auswirkungen der Transformation auf Umweltschutzgüter und die Verteilung der Kosten auf verschiedene Einkommensgruppen zu analysieren.Dieser breit gefächerte Ansatz ermöglicht es, die Implikationen der Energiewende robust und im Detail zu beschreiben

Actors, decision-making, and institutions in quantitative system modelling

Increasing realism in quantitative system modelling with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society. Yet, studies using quantitative system models, which have become a key analytical tool to support sustainability and decarbonization policies, focus on outcomes, therefore overlooking the dynamics of the drivers of change. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modelling with social science. We argue that several opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches. Several opportunities that do not require major changes in model structure are ready to be seized. Promising ones include combining different types of models and enriching model-based scenarios with evidence from applied economics and transition studies

Assessment of least-cost pathways for decarbonising Europe's power supply : a model-based long-term scenario analysis accounting for the characteristics of renewable energies

This work analyses technological least-cost pathways for deep emission reductions in the European power sector. It seeks a better understanding of the role renewable energies play in the transformation process up to 2050. Therefore, a model is developed which optimises capacity expansion and hourly dispatch of both conventional and renewable power generation, transmission grids and storage facilities in all hours of the analysed years. The model is applied to four long-term scenarios

A supply curve of electricity-based hydrogen in a decarbonized European energy system in 2050

Alongside substituting fossil fuels with renewable energies and increasing energy efficiency, the utilization of electricity-based hydrogen or its derived synthetic fuels is a potential strategy to meet ambitious European climate protection targets. As synthetic hydrocarbons have the same chemical properties as their fossil substitutes, existing infrastructures and well-established application technologies can be retained while CO2 emissions in energy conversion, transport, industry, and residential and services can be reduced. However, the conversion processes, especially the generation of hydrogen necessary for all e-fuels, are associated with energy losses and costs. To evaluate the techno-economic hydrogen production potential and the impact of its utilization on the rest of the energy system, a supply curve of electricity-based hydrogen in a greenhouse gas emission-free European energy system in 2050 was developed. It was found that hydrogen quantities of the order of magnitude envisaged in the 1.5 °C scenarios by the European Commission's long-term strategic vision (1536–1953 TWhH2) induce marginal hydrogen production costs of over 110 €2020/MWhH2 and electrolyzer capacities of more than 615 GWel. Although the generation of these amounts of hydrogen using electrolysis provides some flexibility to the electricity system and can integrate small amounts of local surplus electricity, an additional 766 GWel of wind power and 865 GWel of solar power must be installed to cover the additional electricity demand for hydrogen production. It was furthermore found that the most important techno-economic properties of electrolyzers used in an energy system dominated by renewable energies are the ability to operate flexibly and the conversion efficiency of electricity into hydrogen. It is anticipated that the shown analysis is valuable for bothpolicy-makers, who need to identify research, subsidy and infrastructure requirements for a future energy system, and corporate decision-makers, whose business models will be significantly affected by the future availability of electricity-based fuels

Wasserstoff als Flexibilitätsoption im europäischen Stromsektor

Das Papier nimmt die öffentliche Diskussion um synthetische Kraftstoffe als Teillösung einer sektorübergreifenden Emissionsreduktion auf. Im Rahmen einer Szenarioanalyse wird diskutiert, welche Rolle Wasserstoff insbesondere als Flexibilitätsoption im europäischen Stromsektor spielen kann. Dabei werden unterschiedliche Ambitionsniveaus bei der Dekarbonisierung, die Konkurrenz mit anderen Flexibilitätsoptionen und die Auswirkungen einer exogenen Wasserstoffnachfrage aus dem Verkehrssektor berücksichtigt